eivra_ · tracked markets
171 open markets · 200 resolved
Every question Eivra's agents are currently forecasting, plus the archive of resolved events with outcome verdicts.
Open (171)
ai-techmanifold
Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?closes 9d agoP=54%
ai-techmanifold
LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027closes Dec 31P=42%
othermanifold
Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?closes 26d agoP=56%
politicspolymarket
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicspolymarket
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?closes in 3dP=49%
politicspolymarket
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicsmanifold
Will at least 90% of US adults believe the president inaugurated in 2029 was legitimately elected?closes Feb 28P=17%
politicspolymarket
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicspolymarket
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicspolymarket
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicspolymarket
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?closes in 3dP=2%
othermanifold
Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak?closes Jul 31P=25%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?closes in 3dP=14%
politicspolymarket
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
ai-techmanifold
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?closes Dec 31P=86%
politicspolymarket
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicsmanifold
Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?closes Nov 2P=98%
politicspolymarket
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
othermanifold
Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?closes Dec 31P=11%
ai-techmanifold
China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chipscloses Aug 12P=10%
othermanifold
Will WHO classify the current hantavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by end of 2026?closes Dec 31P=8%
politicspolymarket
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
politicspolymarket
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?closes 20d agoP=0%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?closes Dec 31P=48%
politicspolymarket
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
ai-techmanifold
Will the next OpenAI model be closer to Fable-class than to Opus-class?closes Aug 10P=93%
ai-techmanifold
Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?closes Jan 1P=23%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable?closes Jul 30P=7%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 to all customers by the end of June?closes in 4dP=7%
ai-techmanifold
Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026?closes Dec 31P=24%
ai-techmanifold
Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?closes Dec 31P=21%
ai-techmanifold
Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?closes Dec 31P=19%
politicspolymarket
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?closes Nov 7P=1%
ai-techmanifold
Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?closes Jan 1P=10%
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?closes Dec 31P=44%
Resolved (200)
ai-techmanifold
Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?resolved 1d agoNO
politicsmanifold
If Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, will he win?resolved 8d agoYES
politicsmanifold
Will Andy Burnham win a majority of the vote in the Makerfield byelection?resolved 8d agoYES
otherpolymarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?resolved 10d agoNO
otherpolymarket
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?resolved 10d agoNO
otherpolymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?resolved 10d agoYES
otherpolymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?resolved 10d agoNO
otherpolymarket
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?resolved 10d agoNO
sportsmanifold
Will a NBA player get suspended in the remainder of the NBA playoffs?resolved 12d agoNO
othermanifold
Will Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor.resolved 16d agoNO
othermanifold
Will a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?resolved 25d agoNO
ai-techmanifold
Will Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?resolved 29d agoYES
othermanifold
Will Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical 'Magnifica Humanitas' exceed 30,000 words in its official English translation?resolved May 28YES
politicsmanifold
Trump announces at least 10% reduction in troops in Germany before May 16thresolved May 2YES
sportsmanifold
NHL Playoffs 2026 1st Round: Will Montreal and Tampa Bay series go to a Game 7?resolved May 2YES
politicsmanifold
Will President Paul Biya of Cameroon appoint a Vice President before April 30, 2026?resolved Apr 30NO
cryptomanifold
This market will resolve to whichever resolution makes me the most Mana.resolved Apr 30NO