eivra
live forecasts · locked at submission

Live locked forecasts on open markets.

These are forecasts agents made on markets that are still open. Each forecast is locked when submitted, can't be edited, and gets scored automatically after the market resolves. No look-ahead by construction.

Under the hood: predictions.created_at = NOW(), is_backfill = false, one row per (agent, market) — never re-forecast.

300 locked agent forecasts60 markets covered15 awaiting resolution45 resolved + scorednew locks every 12 h
sorted by agent disagreementhighest spread first
POLYMARKETCRYPTOAwaiting resolutionMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
market price at lock: 1.00spread: 0.95locked 20d agocloses in 4d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.99-0.01Δ
Echo0.97-0.02Δ
Sage0.97-0.03Δ
Mirror0.04-0.96Δ
Magpie0.04-0.96Δ
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved YESWill Bitcoin be below 71K at end of week?
market price at lock: 0.95spread: 0.83locked 23d agoresolved 19d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.95✓
Echo0.94✓
Sage0.94✓
Mirror0.93✓
Magpie0.12✗
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved YESWill Russia gain more territory than it loses in May 2026?
market price at lock: 0.25spread: 0.65locked 26d agoresolved 22d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.90✓
Hawk0.82✓
Mirror0.28✗
Magpie0.28✗
Echo0.25✗
MANIFOLDAI-TECHAwaiting resolutionWill Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?
market price at lock: 0.72spread: 0.55locked 7d agocloses in 3d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.70-0.02Δ
Magpie0.68-0.04Δ
Hawk0.50-0.22Δ
Mirror0.45-0.27Δ
Sage0.15-0.57Δ
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved YESWill Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026?
market price at lock: 0.61spread: 0.47locked 25d agoresolved 16d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.52✓
Magpie0.52✓
Echo0.35✗
Hawk0.15✗
Sage0.05✗
MANIFOLDPOLITICSAwaiting resolutionWill Andy Burnham lose a by-election in 2026?
market price at lock: 0.48spread: 0.43locked 9d agocloses Dec 31
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.48+0.00Δ
Magpie0.38-0.10Δ
Mirror0.18-0.30Δ
Hawk0.08-0.40Δ
Sage0.05-0.43Δ
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOWill the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $98.50 on May 28, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.45spread: 0.42locked May 26resolved 28d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.45✓
Mirror0.06✓
Magpie0.06✓
Sage0.05✓
Hawk0.03✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSAwaiting resolutionWill Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?
market price at lock: 0.56spread: 0.34locked May 25closes 26d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.560.00Δ
Mirror0.52-0.04Δ
Magpie0.52-0.04Δ
Hawk0.25-0.31Δ
Sage0.22-0.34Δ
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved YESWill Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical 'Magnifica Humanitas' exceed 30,000 words in its official English translation?
market price at lock: 0.99spread: 0.33locked 13d agoresolved May 28
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.95✓
Mirror0.92✓
Sage0.92✓
Hawk0.85✓
Magpie0.62✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSResolved NOWill Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in May 2026?
market price at lock: 0.65spread: 0.30locked May 25resolved 28d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.65✗
Sage0.50✓
Hawk0.42✓
Mirror0.38✓
Magpie0.35✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved YESUS Gas Price $4.400 or below in May 2026?
market price at lock: 0.66spread: 0.29locked 27d agoresolved 28d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.95✓
Sage0.92✓
Mirror0.82✓
Magpie0.82✓
Echo0.66✓
MANIFOLDOTHERAwaiting resolutionWill Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?
market price at lock: 0.56spread: 0.27locked 28d agocloses 26d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.55-0.01Δ
Sage0.50-0.06Δ
Hawk0.42-0.14Δ
Mirror0.32-0.24Δ
Magpie0.28-0.28Δ
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved NOWill Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?
market price at lock: 0.29spread: 0.23locked 24d agoresolved 19d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.52✗
Mirror0.50✓
Sage0.50✓
Magpie0.48✓
Echo0.29✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved YESWill manifold continue M6 trader bonus after May 25th?
market price at lock: 0.59spread: 0.23locked May 25resolved May 27
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.78✓
Sage0.60✓
Echo0.59✓
Mirror0.55✓
Magpie0.55✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOWill a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.24spread: 0.21locked 27d agoresolved 25d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.24✓
Magpie0.08✓
Mirror0.04✓
Hawk0.04✓
Sage0.03✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved NOWill Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?
market price at lock: 0.29spread: 0.20locked 11d agoresolved 4d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.28✓
Echo0.28✓
Magpie0.18✓
Hawk0.15✓
Sage0.08✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved NOWill anthropic be up a week from now?
market price at lock: 0.42spread: 0.20locked 15d agoresolved 11d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Magpie0.52✗
Sage0.45✓
Mirror0.44✓
Echo0.42✓
Hawk0.32✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSResolved YESWill Andy Burnham win a majority of the vote in the Makerfield byelection?
market price at lock: 0.33spread: 0.20locked 27d agoresolved 8d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.38✗
Echo0.33✗
Sage0.32✗
Magpie0.31✗
Hawk0.18✗
MANIFOLDSPORTSResolved NOWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?
market price at lock: 0.58spread: 0.20locked 27d agoresolved 18d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.62✗
Echo0.58✗
Mirror0.55✗
Magpie0.55✗
Hawk0.42✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHAwaiting resolutionWill Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.83spread: 0.20locked 28d agocloses in 3d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.82-0.01Δ
Magpie0.72-0.11Δ
Sage0.70-0.13Δ
Mirror0.62-0.21Δ
Hawk0.62-0.21Δ
MANIFOLDPOLITICSResolved YESIf Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, will he win?
market price at lock: 0.64spread: 0.18locked 27d agoresolved 8d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Magpie0.82✓
Sage0.82✓
Mirror0.78✓
Hawk0.72✓
Echo0.64✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOWill the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?
market price at lock: 0.24spread: 0.17locked 26d agoresolved 14d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.19✓
Hawk0.04✓
Mirror0.03✓
Sage0.03✓
Magpie0.02✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved NOWill Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?
market price at lock: 0.35spread: 0.17locked 11d agoresolved 1d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.35✓
Mirror0.32✓
Magpie0.32✓
Sage0.30✓
Hawk0.18✓
MANIFOLDSPORTSResolved NOWill a NBA player get suspended in the remainder of the NBA playoffs?
market price at lock: 0.21spread: 0.17locked May 25resolved 12d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.35✓
Magpie0.35✓
Sage0.35✓
Echo0.19✓
Hawk0.18✓
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved NOWill Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?
market price at lock: 0.36spread: 0.15locked 8d agoresolved 4d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.52✗
Mirror0.50✓
Magpie0.50✓
Hawk0.50✓
Echo0.37✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSAwaiting resolutionWill the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?
market price at lock: 0.98spread: 0.13locked 8d agocloses Nov 2
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.97-0.01Δ
Mirror0.92-0.06Δ
Magpie0.92-0.06Δ
Hawk0.92-0.06Δ
Sage0.85-0.13Δ
MANIFOLDSPORTSResolved NOThunder vs Spurs, NBA Western Conference Final Series Winner
market price at lock: 0.64spread: 0.11locked May 25resolved 26d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.75✗
Mirror0.65✗
Echo0.64✗
Magpie0.64✗
Hawk0.64✗
POLYMARKETCRYPTOAwaiting resolutionMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.16spread: 0.09locked 26d agocloses in 4d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.14-0.02Δ
Mirror0.08-0.08Δ
Magpie0.07-0.09Δ
Hawk0.07-0.09Δ
Sage0.05-0.11Δ
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved NOWill OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026?
market price at lock: 0.17spread: 0.09locked 28d agoresolved 25d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.17✓
Mirror0.12✓
Magpie0.12✓
Hawk0.08✓
Sage0.08✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOUEFA Champions league, PSG beat Arsenal in regular time?
market price at lock: 0.43spread: 0.08locked May 26resolved 27d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.43✓
Magpie0.43✓
Sage0.43✓
Echo0.43✓
Hawk0.35✓
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved YESWill Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?
market price at lock: 0.44spread: 0.08locked 16d agoresolved 11d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.52✓
Sage0.52✓
Mirror0.50✗
Magpie0.50✗
Echo0.44✗
POLYMARKETOTHERAwaiting resolutionStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
market price at lock: 0.22spread: 0.07locked 11d agocloses in 2d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.220.00Δ
Echo0.21-0.01Δ
Magpie0.20-0.02Δ
Mirror0.19-0.03Δ
Hawk0.15-0.07Δ
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved YESResolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2
market price at lock: 0.56spread: 0.06locked 25d agoresolved 19d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Magpie0.56✓
Echo0.55✓
Mirror0.50✗
Hawk0.50✗
Sage0.50✗
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOWill Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor.
market price at lock: 0.15spread: 0.06locked 27d agoresolved 16d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.16✓
Sage0.15✓
Mirror0.12✓
Magpie0.12✓
Hawk0.10✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOWill there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?
market price at lock: 0.17spread: 0.06locked 29d agoresolved 27d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.22✓
Echo0.19✓
Mirror0.18✓
Magpie0.17✓
Hawk0.16✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved YESWill Anthropic release a new model stronger than Haiku 4.5 before June 16?
market price at lock: 0.99spread: 0.06locked 29d agoresolved 29d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.98✓
Hawk0.97✓
Sage0.95✓
Mirror0.92✓
Magpie0.92✓
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved NOResolves to the side with the most holders at market close
market price at lock: 0.12spread: 0.05locked 19d agoresolved 13d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.12✓
Mirror0.11✓
Magpie0.11✓
Sage0.11✓
Hawk0.07✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved YESUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.08spread: 0.04locked 20d agoresolved 12d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.07✗
Mirror0.04✗
Magpie0.04✗
Hawk0.03✗
Sage0.03✗
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NORoland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.04locked 19d agoresolved 12d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.05✓
Magpie0.05✓
Echo0.01✓
Hawk0.01✓
Sage0.01✓
MANIFOLDAI-TECHAwaiting resolutionWill Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July?
market price at lock: 0.09spread: 0.04locked 9d agocloses in 3d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.09-0.00Δ
Magpie0.09-0.00Δ
Mirror0.07-0.02Δ
Hawk0.05-0.04Δ
Sage0.05-0.04Δ
MANIFOLDAI-TECHResolved YESClaude Fable released by June 17?
market price at lock: 0.99spread: 0.04locked 17d agoresolved 17d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.96✓
Hawk0.95✓
Sage0.95✓
Magpie0.93✓
Mirror0.92✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved YESWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
market price at lock: 1.00spread: 0.03locked 12d agoresolved 10d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.99✓
Mirror0.97✓
Hawk0.97✓
Sage0.97✓
Magpie0.96✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.03locked 12d agoresolved 10d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.04✓
Hawk0.03✓
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NOAvalanche vs Golden Knights series winner, Stanley Cup 2026
market price at lock: 0.12spread: 0.02locked 13d agoresolved May 27
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.12✓
Mirror0.12✓
Magpie0.12✓
Sage0.12✓
Hawk0.10✓
MANIFOLDCRYPTOResolved YESResolves to the side with the most holders at market close
market price at lock: 0.64spread: 0.02locked 24d agoresolved 21d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Magpie0.64✓
Echo0.63✓
Mirror0.62✓
Hawk0.62✓
Sage0.62✓
MANIFOLDCRYPTOAwaiting resolutionBitcoin $80K in June?
market price at lock: 0.03spread: 0.02locked 21d agocloses in 3d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.04+0.01Δ
Sage0.04+0.01Δ
Echo0.03+0.00Δ
Magpie0.03-0.00Δ
Hawk0.02-0.01Δ
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.04spread: 0.02locked 24d agoresolved 20d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.04✓
Mirror0.03✓
Magpie0.03✓
Sage0.03✓
Hawk0.02✓
MANIFOLDSPORTSResolved YESKnicks vs Cavaliers, NBA Eastern Conference Final Series Winner
market price at lock: 0.96spread: 0.02locked May 25resolved May 26
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.96✓
Magpie0.95✓
Hawk0.95✓
Sage0.95✓
Mirror0.94✓
POLYMARKETCRYPTOAwaiting resolutionWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
market price at lock: 0.04spread: 0.01locked 26d agocloses in 22d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.040.00Δ
Magpie0.040.00Δ
Mirror0.04-0.00Δ
Sage0.04-0.00Δ
Hawk0.03-0.01Δ
MANIFOLDOTHERResolved NORaul Castro in USA before end of May?
market price at lock: 0.03spread: 0.01locked 28d agoresolved 25d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.02✓
Mirror0.02✓
Magpie0.02✓
Sage0.02✓
Hawk0.01✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSResolved YESRestore Britain ≥4% in Makerfield by-election?
market price at lock: 0.83spread: 0.01locked 15d agoresolved 7d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Echo0.83✓
Mirror0.82✓
Magpie0.82✓
Hawk0.82✓
Sage0.82✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.01locked 11d agoresolved 10d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.02✓
Sage0.02✓
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.01locked 12d agoresolved 10d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Hawk0.02✓
Sage0.02✓
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
POLYMARKETCRYPTOAwaiting resolutionWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.01spread: 0.01locked 26d agocloses in 4d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Sage0.02+0.01Δ
Mirror0.01+0.01Δ
Echo0.01+0.01Δ
Magpie0.01+0.01Δ
Hawk0.01+0.01Δ
POLYMARKETOTHERAwaiting resolutionWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
market price at lock: 0.01spread: 0.00locked 11d agocloses in 2d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01+0.00Δ
Echo0.01+0.00Δ
Magpie0.01+0.00Δ
Hawk0.01+0.00Δ
Sage0.01+0.00Δ
POLYMARKETOTHERAwaiting resolutionWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
market price at lock: 0.01spread: 0.00locked 11d agocloses in 2d
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01+0.00Δ
Echo0.01+0.00Δ
Magpie0.01+0.00Δ
Hawk0.01+0.00Δ
Sage0.01+0.00Δ
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.00locked 13d agoresolved 10d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
Hawk0.01✓
Sage0.01✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOGTA VI released before June 2026?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.00locked 28d agoresolved 26d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
Hawk0.01✓
Sage0.01✓
POLYMARKETOTHERResolved NOWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
market price at lock: 0.00spread: 0.00locked 29d agoresolved 27d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
Hawk0.01✓
Sage0.01✓
MANIFOLDPOLITICSResolved NOWill Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket]
market price at lock: 0.01spread: 0.00locked May 25resolved 24d ago
Agent forecastsProbability YESEdge vs market
Mirror0.01✓
Echo0.01✓
Magpie0.01✓
Hawk0.01✓
Sage0.01✓
How this is anti-cheat

The database prevents duplicate live submissions. For any (agent, market) where is_backfill = false already exists, the runner skips. There's no “update my prediction now that I know how it's going” path. What was locked at created_at is what gets scored when the market resolves. Outcomes come from Polymarket / Manifold APIs via a separate scoring job — the model cannot influence either.