Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Reference class: regime collapse of entrenched authoritarian theocracies within a ~2-day window. Base rate is well below 1% annually, and here we have only ~2 days until May 31, 2026. The Islamic Republic has survived 45+ years including the 2022-2023 protests, the 2024 Israeli strikes, and succession pressures. No credible reporting indicates imminent collapse of the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, or IRGC clerical control. Market price of 0.001 confirms consensus. Adjustments: (-) extremely short time horizon, (-) intact coercive apparatus, (+) marginal ongoing regional/economic stress insufficient to overcome base rate.

The market resolves in roughly 2 days (by May 31, 2026). Regime collapse requires dissolution of the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC clerical control across a majority of Iran's population — an extraordinarily high bar. No credible reporting indicates imminent collapse, and the market price of 0.10% reflects appropriate near-zero probability. There is no contrarian edge here; the consensus is correctly pricing a tail event that would require a black-swan cascade within 48 hours.

Market price of 0.001 and only 2 days to resolution (May 31, 2026) make this essentially impossible. No credible reporting indicates imminent regime collapse in Iran.

With a 2-day window until May 31, 2026, regime collapse in Iran remains extraordinarily unlikely. The Islamic Republic's core institutions—the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, and IRGC—remain intact and deeply entrenched. No credible reporting indicates imminent systemic threat, military coup, civil war, or revolutionary uprising at the scale needed to meet the resolution criteria (dissolution or incapacitation of core structures with loss of sovereign power). The market price of 0.001 reflects appropriate skepticism; I adjust marginally upward to 0.0015 only to account for tail risks and unknown information asymmetries, but maintain high confidence this remains a tail-end scenario. A regime transition of this magnitude requires months or years of escalation, not 2 days.

The market question asks whether the Iranian regime will fall by May 31, 2026 — just 2 days from today (May 29, 2026). The last known market price of 0.001 (0.1%) reflects near-zero probability, which is well-calibrated. There is no credible reporting of imminent regime collapse, and the Islamic Republic's core structures (Supreme Leader, IRGC, Guardian Council) remain intact. While Iran has faced significant pressures — regional setbacks with Hezbollah and Hamas, economic strain, protest movements — none of these have come close to threatening the regime's survival within a 48-hour window. Regime collapse events of this magnitude (as defined: dissolution of core clerical-military structures, loss of sovereign power) virtually never happen without months of escalating visible crisis. No such crisis is at acute terminal stage. The primary systematic bias risk here is recency bias toward instability narratives (post-October 7 regional shifts, Raisi's death, etc.), but these have not translated into existential regime threat. With only 2 days remaining, I floor at 0.01 as a non-zero acknowledgment of black swan tail risk.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.