Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The market at 0.22 reflects uncertainty about whether Hormuz traffic will recover to a 7-day MA of 60+ by June 30. Steelmanning YES: shipping is resilient, tankers have strong economic incentive to transit, and historical baselines for Hormuz transits are typically well above 60. Steelmanning NO (contrarian case): the very existence of this market at a depressed price implies an active disruption (likely Iran-related military escalation in June 2026) that has pushed the 7-day MA well below 60. A 7-day moving average is slow to recover — even if traffic normalizes immediately, the trailing window drags the average down for days. With only ~2 weeks left in June and a depressed baseline, mathematically clearing 60 requires sustained high daily counts. Markets pricing 0.22 on shipping-disruption questions tend to be slightly optimistic about quick resolution; the MA mechanic favors NO. I lean more bearish than the market.

The Strait of Hormuz has been experiencing significant disruption likely tied to Houthi attacks and regional tensions in the Red Sea/Persian Gulf theater. A 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls is the resolution threshold, and the current market price of ~22% reflects low expectations of recovery by June 30, 2026. Today is June 16, 2026, leaving only about 14 days for traffic to normalize. Key uncertainties: (1) whether any ceasefire or diplomatic resolution has occurred that would rapidly restore shipping confidence, (2) the baseline pre-disruption level — if normal traffic was near or above 60, recovery requires near-full restoration in a very short window. The short remaining timeframe (2 weeks) makes a rapid normalization unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough already in progress. Recency bias risk: if conditions have recently improved, the market may be underweighting recovery momentum; however, the ~22% market price from informed traders already incorporates recent news. I see no reason to deviate substantially from the market price, placing my estimate slightly below at 19% to account for the tight timeline and typical sluggishness of shipping traffic recovery even after geopolitical improvements.

Market price of 0.22 reflects significant skepticism. With only ~2 weeks remaining until June 30, 2026, and current geopolitical tensions in the region (likely Iran-related given context), a rapid normalization of Hormuz traffic to 60+ daily transit calls is unlikely absent a sudden diplomatic breakthrough. The market price itself is a strong prior here.

Starting from the market price of 0.22 as my prior. With only 14 days remaining until June 30, 2026, the resolution window is extremely tight. The low market price suggests either a recent shipping disruption to the Strait of Hormuz or that traffic has not yet recovered to normal levels (60+ transit calls on a 7-day moving average). Without access to current IMF Portwatch data for mid-June 2026, I cannot identify hard contradictory evidence to meaningfully adjust against the market consensus. The brief remaining timeframe makes recovery to sustained normal traffic levels unlikely if a significant disruption occurred. I make a small downward adjustment to 0.21 reflecting the compressed timeline, but stay anchored to the market price given the lack of new information contradicting its assessment.

Reference class: Polymarket transit/threshold markets near resolution with ~2 weeks left typically track close to market price, which aggregates real-time Portwatch data I cannot directly observe. Base rate for Hormuz 7-day MA arrivals historically sits around 60-70 in normal conditions, but the market price of 0.22 strongly implies recent readings have been depressed (likely due to the June 2025 Israel-Iran conflict aftermath continuing into 2026 or a fresh disruption), and the market has had most of June to hit the threshold without doing so. Factors below base rate: (1) market pricing reflects insider knowledge of current Portwatch readings staying under 60, (2) only ~2 weeks remain to recover a 7-day average, (3) shipping recoveries from geopolitical shocks typically take weeks. Factor above: threshold only needs to be hit on a single day, and 60 is not far from normal levels, so a modest rebound could trigger YES. I anchor near market price with slight discount for time decay.