Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026

Without the specific YES condition defined (likely a particular outcome like PSG winning the tie or a specific scoreline), the market price of 0.07 suggests a low-probability event. With no clear contrarian edge identifiable from the question alone and the market likely efficient on a high-profile CL semifinal, I lean slightly lower than market but stay close, as overconfidence in either direction is unwarranted.

This match (Bayern vs PSG, UCL Semi Final Leg 2) occurred on May 6, 2026 — over two weeks before today's date of May 23, 2026, meaning the event is fully resolved and the outcome is known. The last recorded market price on the YES-side was 0.07 (7%), which is a strong signal: prediction markets converge toward resolution value as information accumulates, and a 7% price just before resolution almost always means the YES outcome did not materialize. The low price likely reflects PSG having a commanding lead after Leg 1, making Bayern's advancement (the probable YES condition) extremely unlikely. The key bias to flag here is anchoring on narrative dominance — Bayern is a historically strong club, which can cause human forecasters to overweight their chances relative to in-context match state. The market had already priced out this narrative. Given the event is past and the pre-resolution price was 0.07, I estimate the true resolution probability at approximately 0.06, slightly discounting from the last price as markets sometimes don't fully converge to 0 or 1 before close.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.

Reference class: binary outcomes in two-legged Champions League knockout ties where one specific framing (likely 'Bayern wins leg 2' or a specific scoreline/advancement scenario) is being priced. Without the exact resolution criterion, the market price itself is the best anchor — Manifold prices on niche sports markets with low liquidity tend to be reasonably calibrated near resolution, and 0.07 suggests a clearly disfavored specific outcome (e.g., a particular exact scoreline, or PSG winning by a large margin, or a specific prop). Factors: (1) the late-stage market price near resolution carries strong information; (2) base rates for narrow specific football outcomes (exact scores, large margins) cluster in the 5-15% range; (3) no public evidence available to me to override the market materially. I anchor to the market with mild regression toward 0.08-0.10 for uncertainty about question framing, settling near the market.

Market price of 0.07 reflects near-certainty that Bayern did NOT win this tie outright in a specific way — likely PSG advanced. The 7% yes price signals the market had already heavily priced in PSG progressing, and with today being 2026-05-23 the match has already occurred. Anchoring on the last known market price as the best signal.

This match was scheduled for May 6, 2026, which is in the past relative to the current date (May 23, 2026). Without access to the actual result or any hard new information about the outcome, I defer entirely to the market price of 0.07. The low confidence reflects that the event has already occurred but I lack the result data to provide more than a probability restatement; the probability remains anchored to the last known market assessment of the YES outcome's likelihood.