Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by April 30?

```json { "probability": 0.02, "confidence": "high", "rationale": "Several compounding factors drive this estimate near zero. First, the resolution deadline (April 30, 2026) has already passed — today is May 11, 2026, so this market is effectively closed. Second, and more fundamentally, the underlying premise is deeply implausible: the US does not blockade the Strait of Hormuz — Iran threatens to. A 'US blockade of Hormuz' would be a historically unprecedented act of economic warfare against global oil supply, essentially incompatible with US strategic interests and allied relationships. Third, the last known market price of 1.12% already signals that informed traders assigned near-zero probability. My 2% (vs. market's 1.12%) adds a small epistemic buffer for events that may have occurred between my knowledge horizon and April 30 that I cannot directly verify.", "key_uncertainties": [ "Whether any US military action near Hormuz was rhetorically framed as a 'blockade' in a way that could satisfy resolution criteria", "Exact resolution criteria used by Manifold for this market", "Whether a US-Iran deal or escalation in early 2026 produced any novel Hormuz-related announcements" ], "bias_flags": [ "NARRATIVE DOMINANCE: Trump's unpredictability may tempt forecasters to assign elevated probability to extreme geopolitical acts — resist this; the base rate of US self-blockading a global chokepoint is essentially zero", "RECENCY ANCHORING: Any US-Iran tension headlines could inflate perceived probability; the mechanism (US blockading, then lifting) remains structurally incoherent", "RESOLUTION TIMING: The deadline is past — this should already be resolved NO unless market operators are still pending confirmation" ], "market_price_assessment": "Market at 1.12% was already well-calibrated. If anything, the true probability is even lower given the post-deadline observation window." } ``` **Mirror's bottom line:** This resolves NO with ~

```json { "probability": 0.01, "rationale": "Market priced at ~1% and the April 30 deadline has already passed with no such announcement materializing." } ```

Reference class: Polymarket/Manifold questions about specific named political announcements by a deadline that has already passed. Base rate for YES on already-expired conditional announcement markets where the precipitating event (a US blockade of Hormuz) has not occurred: ~1-2%. Today is 2026-05-11, so the April 30 deadline has passed. Adjustments: (1) There has been no US blockade of Hormuz to lift in the first place — the premise event never materialized, so there is nothing for Trump to announce 'lifting'; (2) No public reporting of any such Trump announcement on or before April 30, 2026; (3) Small residual probability reserved for ambiguous resolution criteria, late-breaking news interpretation, or market mod discretion. Market price of 0.0112 is consistent with this analysis. Anchoring at 0.01.

Market at 1.12% YES. Steelman YES: would require Trump to have first imposed a blockade of Hormuz, then announce lifting it by April 30. No such blockade exists or has been announced; the premise compounds two extremely unlikely events. April 30 has likely passed (today is 2026-05-11), and no such announcement occurred. The market is essentially resolved NO. Even tiny residual probability from ambiguous resolution or trader error doesn't justify going above market. Contrarian edge: market at 1.12% is still slightly overpriced relative to true ~0% given the date has passed. Position MORE extreme below market.

The deadline for this question was April 30, 2026, and today's date is May 11, 2026 – the deadline has definitively passed. There is no evidence of Trump announcing a US blockade of Hormuz being lifted by that date. The market had already priced this outcome extremely low at 0.0112, reflecting the implausibility of such a specific geopolitical announcement. With the resolution date in the past and no occurrence of the event, the probability approaches zero. The minimum allowed output is 0.01, which reflects that this outcome has effectively not materialized.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.