Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season

CL semi-finals go to penalties roughly 10-15% of the time historically (most ties decided in 90 or extra time). The market price of 0.01 seems extremely low, but with today being 2026-05-23 the semis are likely already concluded, suggesting this resolved NO — hence the very depressed price. Adjusting slightly above 0.01 for residual uncertainty.

Reference class: Champions League semi-finals are two-legged ties; a penalty shootout occurs only when aggregate is level after extra time in the second leg. Historically, shootouts in CL semi-finals are rare — roughly 3-4 occurrences across ~60+ semi-final ties in the Champions League era, giving a base rate of about 5-7% per season (two ties per season, ~3-4% per tie). With two semi-final ties in 2025/26, the per-season probability is around 6-9%. No strong specific factors push meaningfully above or below base rate without knowing the matchups, so I anchor near base rate. The market price of 0.01 looks too low relative to the historical frequency, though the market may reflect that one tie is already decided or near-decided by late May 2026.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.

This question asks whether there was a penalty shootout in a Champions League semi-final during the 2025/2026 season. The market price is sitting at 0.0100 (1%), which is extremely low and suggests the market has already resolved NO or is near-certain to resolve NO. Historically, penalty shootouts in CL semi-finals are rare — across both legs, most ties are settled in 180 minutes or extra time. In any given semi-final pair, there are two ties (four teams), each with two legs plus potential extra time. The base rate for a shootout in a given semi-final tie is roughly 15-20% historically, and with two ties the probability at least one goes to penalties is perhaps 25-35%. However, the market price of 1% is a very strong signal that this has already resolved or is nearly resolved as NO — either the semi-finals have already been played without a shootout, or the market reflects near-certain knowledge. Given today's date is May 23, 2026, the CL semi-finals for 2025/26 would typically be played in late April/early May, meaning they are very likely already completed. The 1% market price is a strong resolution signal. I weight this heavily, placing my estimate slightly above 1% to account for residual uncertainty about market accuracy.

Champions League semi-finals are two-legged ties decided on aggregate; penalty shootouts only occur if aggregate is level after extra time in the second leg. Historically, shootouts in CL semi-finals are very rare (only a handful in the competition's history across decades). The market price of ~1% is roughly in line with the base rate, perhaps slightly low. I see no strong contrarian case to push significantly higher or lower, so I stay close to the market with a tiny upward nudge toward the historical base rate.

Market priced at 0.01 reflects that the 2025/2026 Champions League semi-finals have likely already been played (late April/early May 2026, and today is May 23). The minimal residual price suggests extremely low probability of a penalty shootout having occurred. Without access to real-time Champions League results, I remain anchored to market consensus. A penalty shootout occurring in either semi-final match would be a discrete historical event—either it happened or it didn't. The market's extreme confidence (99% against) combined with the timing suggests the outcome is essentially resolved. I adjust marginally above 0.01 only for the small possibility of market lag or my informational gaps, but stay very close to the wisdom-of-crowds prior.