Will manifold continue M6 trader bonus after May 25th?

The market at 0.59 looks underpriced given base rates: Manifold has historically kept the M6 trader bonus as a standing feature, and discontinuations typically come with explicit advance announcements. Absent a known sunset notice, status-quo bias favors continuation, and the market may be anchored on the literal 'after May 25th' phrasing creating uncertainty rather than a real policy change signal. Taking a contrarian-extreme position above consensus.

Market price of 0.59 suggests slight lean toward continuation; today is exactly May 25th (the deadline), so resolution is imminent. Manifold has historically extended or modified trader bonuses rather than abruptly ending them, but budget pressures and policy changes are real. Near-coin-flip with slight yes lean matching the market price.

This question asks whether Manifold Markets will continue their M6 trader bonus after May 25th, 2026 (today's date). The last known market price of ~0.59 (yes-side) provides a meaningful anchor from prediction market participants who presumably had more context about Manifold's internal plans. Key uncertainties: Manifold has historically adjusted, paused, and reintroduced various incentive programs (mana bonuses, trader bonuses, etc.) based on financial sustainability and engagement goals; the M6 trader bonus program specifics are unclear without current knowledge of Manifold's announcements. Potential biases to flag: (1) recency bias — if the bonus was recently introduced, participants may overweight continuation; (2) status quo bias — bonuses that exist tend to be expected to persist; (3) narrative dominance — if Manifold recently signaled fiscal tightening, markets may be underweighting discontinuation. Since today is exactly May 25th (the resolution date threshold), the market is essentially resolving now, and the 0.59 price suggests slight lean toward YES but with substantial uncertainty. I'll weight the market price heavily given proximity to resolution but apply slight downward adjustment for the possibility the bonus was already confirmed ended, giving ~0.55.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.

Reference class: Manifold platform incentive programs and their continuation past announced end dates. Base rate for Manifold continuing existing trader bonus/subsidy programs in some form is moderate-to-high (~60-70%), as Manifold has historically iterated on but rarely fully eliminated trader incentives. Factors above base rate: (1) market price at 0.586 reflects insider/community sentiment which tends to be well-calibrated on Manifold meta-questions; (2) trader bonuses drive engagement which Manifold values. Factors below base rate: (1) Manifold has been cost-cutting and reducing mana subsidies over the past year; (2) explicit end dates on such programs are often honored. Anchoring near market price with slight adjustment.

The market price of 0.5858 reflects collective information from Manifold traders who likely have better real-time visibility into platform announcements and historical bonus renewal patterns. Without access to current verified announcements about whether Manifold has formally extended or discontinued the M6 trader bonus as of May 25th, I anchor closely to the market price. The near-50-50 split suggests genuine uncertainty about this decision, with mild optimism reflected in the price being slightly above 0.5. I make a minimal upward adjustment of +0.001 to account for typical platform incentive renewal patterns, but remain cautious given the specificity of this date and lack of hard new information I can verify independently.