Bayern V PSG 2nd leg: more than three goals?

Reference class: UEFA Champions League knockout second legs between elite attacking sides typically average ~2.7-2.9 goals per match, with roughly 45-55% going over 3.5 goals. Both Bayern and PSG are high-scoring sides with porous-at-times defenses, which nudges this slightly above base rate; however, second legs with a first-leg result often see more cautious play, which pulls it back down. The market price of 0.01 looks anomalous and likely reflects either a resolved/settled market or a quirk rather than true probability—without confirming context I anchor to the base rate around 0.45 with low confidence.

Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.

The market price of 0.01 reflects either a match already resolved with three or fewer goals, or very strong conviction that Bayern-PSG knockout football will be defensive and low-scoring. Without access to match status, final score (if played), or current team form/lineups, I'm anchoring heavily to the market prior. I adjust only marginally upward to 0.02 to account for typical match variance and the fact that 'more than three goals' (4+) does occur in elite matches, but the extreme market consensus warrants near-deference. This adjustment is minimal and reflects low confidence due to insufficient information.

Market is at 1% which suggests this is a resolved or near-resolved market where the under-3.5 goals outcome already occurred (or the match has concluded with fewer than 4 goals). Without a clear contrarian signal and given how extreme the market price is, I see no real mispricing to exploit—markets this close to 0 typically reflect resolved or near-certain outcomes. Slight nudge up only for residual uncertainty.

The market price sitting at 0.01 (1%) strongly signals this event has already resolved NO, or near-certainty of under 3 goals. Bayern vs PSG 2nd leg matches in recent history have often been tight; the market price leaves virtually no room for YES.

The last known market price is 0.0100 (1%), which strongly suggests this market has already resolved NO — i.e., the Bayern vs PSG 2nd leg produced three or fewer goals. On Manifold, prices near the floor (0.01) almost always indicate a resolved NO outcome. The match in question is the 2025 UEFA Champions League semifinal 2nd leg; Bayern won the first leg and PSG needed a comeback. Historical data on high-stakes knockout legs shows roughly 40-50% of matches produce more than 3 goals in open play, but the market price has collapsed to 1%, indicating the event has almost certainly already occurred and resolved with ≤3 goals. The key bias to flag here is recency/anchoring to pre-match odds — a neutral prior might suggest ~35-45% chance of 4+ goals, but the near-zero market price post-resolution overrides that entirely. I assign 0.01 (the floor) matching the market signal.