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Andy Burnham is currently Mayor of Greater Manchester, not an MP, so he would first need to (a) trigger or contest a parliamentary by-election in 2026 and (b) lose it. Base rate for a high-profile Labour figure losing a by-election in a safe-ish seat is very low (<10%), and the base rate for Burnham even contesting a by-election in 2026 is also low — there is no vacant seat he is standing in, and speculati","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"d0416b35-0a1b-4ba8-afcb-1e9d17796e9d","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"13994c0b-e23f-4182-b322-330883acced5","market_question":"Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa-dQzO5lRQt8","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-06-30T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.7212,"edge":-0.2212,"abs_edge":0.2212,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":258.73,"expected_pnl_usd":79.36,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-06-19T12:19:36.305044+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"I have no specific information about 'Fable 5' or any Anthropic access restriction affecting US customers. The market sits at 0.72 with ~11 days until end of June. Without concrete signals about the nature of the outage, regulatory cause, or Anthropic's stated timeline, I cannot identify a real mispricing. The market may be pricing in known restoration timelines I lack visibility into. A contrarian position requires evidence, not just skepticism—so I lean toward abstaining via a non-committal 0.","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"37d6d6d7-4251-4392-a30d-041e55adda28","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"d305fc2d-c707-480d-976c-086e36d4997c","market_question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"politics","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/EmanuelNunez/who-will-be-the-new-presindent-in-c","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T18:15:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.22,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.34,"abs_edge":0.34,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.27,"expected_pnl_usd":77.27,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-25T12:20:09.746582+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: non-incumbent outsider/independent candidates winning a first-round or runoff presidential election in Latin American multi-candidate fields (base rate ~15-20%). De la Espriella is a high-profile right-wing lawyer polling competitively for Colombia's 2026 election, but he faces a crowded right-wing field (Uribistas, Vargas Lleras allies, Fico-aligned figures), no established party machinery, and Colombia's two-round system that historically punishes polarizing outsiders in the r","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"8f1f9145-21b4-452b-8727-cdf4f1ac7619","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"7649116c-c155-43c9-85e5-d005e03b17c4","market_question":"Will Andy Burnham lose a by-election in 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"politics","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-andy-burnham-lose-a-byelection","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.08,"market_price":0.48,"edge":-0.4,"abs_edge":0.4,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":92.31,"expected_pnl_usd":76.92,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-06-17T12:19:42.159318+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Andy Burnham is the Mayor of Greater Manchester, not currently an MP, so for him to 'lose a by-election in 2026' he would first need to stand in one — which requires a sitting Labour MP to step down and Burnham to be selected as candidate, all before year-end. Even if he did contest a by-election (widely speculated as a path to a leadership challenge), he would almost certainly be parachuted into a safe Labour seat where losing is highly improbable given his name recognition and stature. The mar","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"d3f931b0-00c6-45bd-b38d-4e40ee8b75b0","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"bd61a7d5-dd09-4581-ac68-e38ea51e4f40","market_question":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.7,"market_price":0.8275,"edge":-0.1275,"abs_edge":0.1275,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":479.76,"expected_pnl_usd":73.93,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:28.442042+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: Anthropic product/model rollouts pre-announced or rumored on platforms like Manifold typically resolve YES at roughly 60-75% when the market is already pricing 80%+, since markets tend to slightly overestimate near-term shipping timelines. I have no direct knowledge of 'Claude Mythos' as a named product, suggesting it's either a codename/rumor or an internal project. Factors above base rate: (1) market consensus at 0.83 reflects informed traders with likely leaks/signals, (2) on","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"419b06f4-776b-4ecc-831c-8d8f67efd16d","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"d305fc2d-c707-480d-976c-086e36d4997c","market_question":"Will Abelardo de la Espriella be the next president in Colombia?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"politics","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/EmanuelNunez/who-will-be-the-new-presindent-in-c","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T18:15:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.25,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.31,"abs_edge":0.31,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.27,"expected_pnl_usd":70.45,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-25T12:20:20.681026+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Market at 0.56 looks overconfident for a far-right outsider lawyer in a fragmented multi-candidate Colombian presidential race. Historical base rate for any single candidate winning Colombia's two-round election is well below 50%, especially one without a major party machine. De la Espriella has polled competitively but faces consolidation risk as centrist and left-wing voters typically rally in the runoff against polarizing right-wing figures (see Hernández 2022 losing to Petro). Manifold's sma","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"ecace52f-3dc8-47fc-9467-ced04e533e30","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"cfba8d90-b574-41b4-9c23-c49bb56f0441","market_question":"Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th-Q2PqZLlyUQ","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T09:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.28,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.28,"abs_edge":0.28,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.26,"expected_pnl_usd":63.63,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-30T00:19:42.79294+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Pro-Ukraine mappers (e.g., DeepStateMap) have consistently shown Russia making net territorial gains through most of 2024-2026, with Ukraine rarely achieving net positive weekly exchanges. The market price of 0.56 seems high given the ground reality; Russia has maintained offensive pressure across multiple fronts. Ukraine achieves net gains in a given week only occasionally, perhaps 25-30% of weeks.","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"2943bfa1-5cfc-4aba-b4ca-66b16805bfa3","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"bd61a7d5-dd09-4581-ac68-e38ea51e4f40","market_question":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.72,"market_price":0.8275,"edge":-0.1075,"abs_edge":0.1075,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":479.76,"expected_pnl_usd":62.33,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:56.626569+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Claude Mythos is not a known public Anthropic model as of my knowledge cutoff; this may be a codename or unreleased product. The market price of 0.83 suggests strong community belief in near-term release, but with ~1 month remaining until July 1, 2026, and no confirmed public info, I discount slightly for uncertainty about whether this is real/imminent.","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"3c4bc907-0277-4d31-b571-001f43e57fbb","agent_id":"mirror","agent_name":"Mirror","market_id":"7649116c-c155-43c9-85e5-d005e03b17c4","market_question":"Will Andy Burnham lose a by-election in 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"politics","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-andy-burnham-lose-a-byelection","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.18,"market_price":0.48,"edge":-0.3,"abs_edge":0.3,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":92.31,"expected_pnl_usd":57.69,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-06-17T12:21:11.5374+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"This question requires two joint conditions: (1) Andy Burnham contests a by-election in 2026, AND (2) he loses it. As of my knowledge cutoff, Burnham was Mayor of Greater Manchester with speculation about a Westminster move. If he were to contest a by-election, he would almost certainly choose a safe Labour seat, making an outright loss very unlikely (perhaps 10-20%). The main uncertainty is whether such a by-election even occurs in the 2026 window, which I'd estimate at 40-55%. Multiplying P(by","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"5b09feb8-0cd0-4dee-a236-53a50d6ea03f","agent_id":"mirror","agent_name":"Mirror","market_id":"cfba8d90-b574-41b4-9c23-c49bb56f0441","market_question":"Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th-Q2PqZLlyUQ","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T09:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.32,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.24,"abs_edge":0.24,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.26,"expected_pnl_usd":54.54,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-30T00:20:24.466456+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"As of late May 2026, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has been ongoing for over four years. Pro-Ukraine mappers (like DeepStateMap) have generally tracked a situation where Russian forces have maintained offensive momentum in the Donetsk region since mid-2024, with Ukraine primarily in a defensive posture. The base rate for Ukraine achieving a net positive territorial week (more gained than lost) according to pro-Ukraine sources has been relatively low during 2025-2026 — perhaps 20-35% of weeks. The ","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"1e20c465-43c3-445e-be5e-3c7a4abcc6ab","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"9bc4e3af-d679-4aa2-95d6-0f0bfc5d9aa9","market_question":"Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?","market_source":"polymarket","market_category":"sports","market_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.04,"market_price":0.377,"edge":-0.337,"abs_edge":0.337,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":60.51,"expected_pnl_usd":54.09,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-21T00:52:03.42215+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: a specific NBA team winning the championship in a given season. Base rate is ~1/30 ≈ 3.3%; among plausible contenders it's higher. As of May 21, 2026, the NBA Finals are imminent or underway, so if the Spurs were a Finals participant the market would price near 0.5; a price of 0.377 is implausible for a Finals team and more consistent with stale/illiquid Polymarket pricing on a long-shot futures market. The Spurs (Wembanyama-led) are a rising team but were not widely projected a","won":null,"pnl_usd":null},{"prediction_id":"d3a674ba-bad6-494b-b32f-45a5cceb7964","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"9bc4e3af-d679-4aa2-95d6-0f0bfc5d9aa9","market_question":"Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?","market_source":"polymarket","market_category":"sports","market_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-san-antonio-spurs-win-the-2026-nba-finals","market_status":"open","market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.05,"market_price":0.377,"edge":-0.327,"abs_edge":0.327,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":60.51,"expected_pnl_usd":52.49,"resolved_outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"created_at":"2026-05-21T00:52:14.669044+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"A 37.7% implied probability for any single team to win the NBA Finals is absurdly high given base rates—only one team wins out of 30, and even heavy favorites historically price in the 20-30% range at most before playoffs. If this price is post-conference-finals (Spurs in the Finals), 37.7% still seems low for a coin-flip series, but more likely this is a stale or mispriced market. Either way, a contrarian Hawk fades extreme overconfidence: the Spurs are a young team with Wembanyama, but champio","won":null,"pnl_usd":null}],"recent_resolved":[{"prediction_id":"1ab787e3-5aed-4eb2-85e2-d65804b33617","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-22T15:55:25.504+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.478,"market_price":0.0562,"edge":0.4218,"abs_edge":0.4218,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":1677.95,"expected_pnl_usd":749.86,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-22T00:01:43.159+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"824f0fcf-c812-4194-abb4-33a8ce845103","agent_id":"mirror","agent_name":"Mirror","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-22T15:55:25.504+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.3553,"edge":0.1447,"abs_edge":0.1447,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":181.44,"expected_pnl_usd":40.72,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-19T00:20:02.360602+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Bitcoin's short-term directional price movement over any 7-day window is essentially a coin flip — empirically, BTC closes higher than its open roughly 50-55% of weekly periods historically. The market's last-known YES price of 0.3553 suggests the crowd is pricing this below 50%, which could reflect mild bearish short-term sentiment or a recent run-up creating mean-reversion expectations. However, the word 'exactly higher' is ambiguous — if it means strictly above the current price in 7 days, th","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"fe4a256c-50b7-48e0-a8c6-100de9395f67","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-22T15:55:25.504+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.3553,"edge":0.1447,"abs_edge":0.1447,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":181.44,"expected_pnl_usd":40.72,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-19T00:19:29.899031+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Bitcoin's short-term price direction is essentially a coin flip; the market price of 0.355 implies the crowd already sees it as slightly below 50/50, likely reflecting minor bearish sentiment or fees/friction, so I shade slightly below even odds.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"601c6d5f-8913-4010-88c7-d6801edd4442","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-22T15:55:25.504+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.3553,"edge":0.1447,"abs_edge":0.1447,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":181.44,"expected_pnl_usd":40.72,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-19T00:19:22.668959+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Over a 7-day horizon, Bitcoin's price movement is close to a coin flip with a slight upward drift historically. The market is pricing YES at 0.3553, which seems too low given that 7-day returns are roughly symmetric around zero with a mild positive drift. Without specific bearish catalysts known, the contrarian case favors a higher probability than the market's ~36%. I'll take a moderately more extreme position toward fair value around 50/50.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"0e251ab2-1df0-449f-87a8-dfdcf4db62fe","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-22T15:55:25.504+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.52,"market_price":0.3553,"edge":0.1647,"abs_edge":0.1647,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":181.44,"expected_pnl_usd":46.35,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-19T00:19:14.45409+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: 7-day Bitcoin price changes. Historically, BTC has closed higher than 7 days prior roughly 52-55% of the time over the long run, reflecting a slight upward drift. The market price of 0.3553 seems anomalously low versus this base rate, suggesting either the question wording ('exactly higher') is interpreted strictly or there's market-specific context I lack. Absent specific catalysts or trend data for June 2026, I anchor near the base rate with a small upward tilt for drift, whil","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"53aa9043-745f-4467-ba59-9709058e84fa","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"fa910adb-ada0-4c8e-96e2-abb5b3c757f9","market_question":"If Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, will he win?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"politics","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-andy-burnham-is-the-candidate-fo","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-13T20:30:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.756,"market_price":0.6397,"edge":0.1163,"abs_edge":0.1163,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":56.32,"expected_pnl_usd":18.17,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-19T02:32:20.009+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-18T02:32:20.009+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":true,"pnl_usd":56.32},{"prediction_id":"a9b4598c-c94e-4c24-b184-912c019f5200","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"471964f6-a206-49ec-8a83-0003b52ef5b8","market_question":"Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-claude-fable-5-be-a-accessible","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-23T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.18,"market_price":0.3468,"edge":-0.1668,"abs_edge":0.1668,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":53.09,"expected_pnl_usd":25.54,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-25T12:56:25.572+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-16T00:21:28.634947+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"The market at 0.35 already reflects significant skepticism, but the contrarian case for going lower is strong: 'Claude Fable 5' is not an announced product as of my knowledge, and Anthropic's naming convention is Opus/Sonnet/Haiku, not 'Fable.' Even if a Fable line launched, top-tier new models historically debut on higher-priced tiers (Max 20x or API-only) with delays, but the specific date (June 23, 2026) and specific tier requirement creates multiple conjunctive conditions: (1) product exists","won":true,"pnl_usd":53.09},{"prediction_id":"6228b8c3-1b3f-4457-b5f4-deaeb66032db","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"cb8d4fe0-d285-4a1d-bcc9-38cb4b49982d","market_question":"Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-have-kyc-for-custome","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-21T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.18,"market_price":0.2926,"edge":-0.1126,"abs_edge":0.1126,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":41.37,"expected_pnl_usd":15.93,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-22T06:28:44.112+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-15T12:20:53.923811+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"No strong public signals that Anthropic has implemented or announced KYC requirements for API customers imminently; the market price around 0.29 suggests some speculation but the week-long window to June 22 is very tight and such policy changes typically come with advance notice. Slight downward adjustment from market price given lack of corroborating evidence.","won":true,"pnl_usd":41.37},{"prediction_id":"2a9a70c0-abb5-42e9-96f4-649e2cf1ac45","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"cb8d4fe0-d285-4a1d-bcc9-38cb4b49982d","market_question":"Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-have-kyc-for-custome","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-21T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.15,"market_price":0.2926,"edge":-0.1426,"abs_edge":0.1426,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":41.37,"expected_pnl_usd":20.17,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-22T06:28:44.112+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-15T12:20:39.589754+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"The market sits at ~29% which already reflects meaningful uncertainty. Steelmanning YES: Anthropic has been tightening enterprise controls and could announce KYC requirements as part of compliance with emerging AI regulation. Steelmanning NO (contrarian): KYC for all customers is a major operational/product shift that typically requires long lead times, legal review, and clear regulatory triggers. There's no public signal as of mid-June 2026 that Anthropic has announced broad KYC, and 'before Ju","won":true,"pnl_usd":41.37},{"prediction_id":"3450dea9-9985-402e-932f-d37df25f6e04","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"cb8d4fe0-d285-4a1d-bcc9-38cb4b49982d","market_question":"Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-have-kyc-for-custome","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-21T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.08,"market_price":0.2926,"edge":-0.2126,"abs_edge":0.2126,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":41.37,"expected_pnl_usd":30.06,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-22T06:28:44.112+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-15T12:20:27.515095+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: consumer/developer AI API providers implementing formal KYC (identity verification) for all customers. Base rate is low — most AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) use payment-card verification and AUP enforcement rather than formal KYC, and announcements of full KYC programs are rare events in any given week. Anthropic currently uses email/phone/payment verification but not formal KYC for general customers. Adjustments: (1) no public announcement or credible reporting as of mid-","won":true,"pnl_usd":41.37},{"prediction_id":"884e10b4-18c5-49c0-b794-89c44f4f0cba","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"11b6c48f-e04b-4e9e-ad42-201f9ff6fe3b","market_question":"Will anthropic be up a week from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-be-up-a-week-from-no","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-16T03:24:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.43,"market_price":0.2083,"edge":0.2217,"abs_edge":0.2217,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":379.99,"expected_pnl_usd":106.4,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T19:43:04.059+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-14T19:43:04.059+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"0e1d1cc5-1a18-4b51-93bc-e9ff897b36f2","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"de925808-e070-46e1-ad81-fb58d247c1f4","market_question":"Will a NBA player get suspended in the remainder of the NBA playoffs?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"sports","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-a-nba-player-get-suspended-in","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-20T23:59:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.284,"market_price":0.1222,"edge":0.1618,"abs_edge":0.1618,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":718.08,"expected_pnl_usd":132.34,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-14T19:45:31.471+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-13T19:45:31.471+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"823ee141-5e31-4b3c-b9e9-98f2e8171398","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"b4a9f9e6-ca33-4054-b706-411835fc6cb0","market_question":"Will the US attack Cuba in the next 30 days?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/CommanderKeen/will-the-us-attack-cuba-in-the-next","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-11T23:10:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.062,"market_price":0.2421,"edge":-0.1801,"abs_edge":0.1801,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":31.94,"expected_pnl_usd":23.76,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-12T15:51:19.392+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-11T15:51:19.392+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":true,"pnl_usd":31.94},{"prediction_id":"5196f603-d2d1-47ad-9445-ff28de638836","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"11b6c48f-e04b-4e9e-ad42-201f9ff6fe3b","market_question":"Will anthropic be up a week from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-be-up-a-week-from-no","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-16T03:24:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.52,"market_price":0.4243,"edge":0.0957,"abs_edge":0.0957,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":135.68,"expected_pnl_usd":22.55,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T19:43:04.059+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-11T12:19:50.21413+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Anthropic is a private company with no public stock, so 'up' likely refers to a prediction market or internal valuation metric. The base rate near 0.42 suggests skepticism, but AI sector momentum and Anthropic's continued fundraising/model releases lean slightly positive over a one-week horizon. High uncertainty given ambiguous resolution criteria.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"f92138bd-d78a-459a-a43f-c601601b0521","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"11b6c48f-e04b-4e9e-ad42-201f9ff6fe3b","market_question":"Will anthropic be up a week from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"ai-tech","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-be-up-a-week-from-no","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-16T03:24:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.32,"market_price":0.4243,"edge":-0.1043,"abs_edge":0.1043,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":73.7,"expected_pnl_usd":18.12,"resolved_outcome":false,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T19:43:04.059+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-11T12:19:39.857449+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Market sits at 0.42, already below 50%, suggesting the crowd leans bearish on Anthropic being 'up' over the next week. Steelman market: 'up' is ambiguous for a private company (likely referring to valuation, sentiment, or a tracked proxy), and base rate for any specific 'up' resolution criterion over a single week tends to hover near 50% unless there's a known catalyst. Steelman opposite (YES): Anthropic has steady positive momentum in 2026 with frequent product launches and revenue growth headl","won":true,"pnl_usd":73.7},{"prediction_id":"fd0b1094-4aa0-49dc-8dfc-0d3c5c9c1af5","agent_id":"mirror","agent_name":"Mirror","market_id":"e83c5733-a8bd-4fe8-b989-22413459e5bc","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-14T23:25:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.442,"edge":0.058,"abs_edge":0.058,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":126.22,"expected_pnl_usd":13.11,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T15:47:33.77+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-10T12:20:20.277339+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Bitcoin's short-term price direction (7-day horizon) is essentially a coin-flip from a pure statistical standpoint. Historical analysis of BTC weekly returns shows roughly 55-60% of weeks close higher, but this slight bullish bias is often overstated due to survivorship and recency effects — Bitcoin's long bull runs dominate memory. The market's last-known YES price of 0.442 implies the crowd assigns ~44% probability to a higher close, which is slightly below the historical base rate. Key uncert","won":true,"pnl_usd":126.22},{"prediction_id":"2db159b1-1bda-4f88-8e6b-229ade69391a","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","market_id":"e83c5733-a8bd-4fe8-b989-22413459e5bc","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-14T23:25:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.442,"edge":0.058,"abs_edge":0.058,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":126.22,"expected_pnl_usd":13.11,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T15:47:33.77+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-10T12:19:45.252696+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Bitcoin 7-day direction is essentially a coin flip; slight upward drift bias in crypto historically gives marginal edge to YES, but market price at 0.44 suggests informed participants lean slightly NO. Call it near 50/50.","won":true,"pnl_usd":126.22},{"prediction_id":"0046178a-409e-4ba0-815e-a35c20746ad2","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"e83c5733-a8bd-4fe8-b989-22413459e5bc","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-14T23:25:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.52,"market_price":0.442,"edge":0.078,"abs_edge":0.078,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":126.22,"expected_pnl_usd":17.63,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T15:47:33.77+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-10T12:19:35.187957+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Bitcoin 7-day returns are close to a coin flip with a slight positive drift historically (roughly 52-55% up weeks over long samples). The market at 0.442 appears to underprice the base rate, likely reflecting recent bearish sentiment or a slight ambiguity in 'exactly higher.' Taking the contrarian view, the unconditional base rate plus positive drift supports a modestly higher YES probability than the market implies, though without a specific catalyst I won't go extreme.","won":true,"pnl_usd":126.22},{"prediction_id":"b0581dcf-bb18-4389-9ad0-0c085a60c033","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"e83c5733-a8bd-4fe8-b989-22413459e5bc","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-14T23:25:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.52,"market_price":0.442,"edge":0.078,"abs_edge":0.078,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":126.22,"expected_pnl_usd":17.63,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T15:47:33.77+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-10T12:19:23.372137+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"low","reasoning":"Reference class: 7-day Bitcoin price changes. Historically, BTC closes higher than 7 days prior roughly 52-55% of the time over the past decade, reflecting a mild upward drift. Base rate ~0.53. Without a specific catalyst identified for this window in June 2026, I anchor near the base rate. Slight adjustments: (1) market price at 0.44 suggests some bearish sentiment or known short-term headwind I cannot verify, nudging me down; (2) long-run drift and the fact 'exactly higher' just requires any p","won":true,"pnl_usd":126.22},{"prediction_id":"42de157c-3048-4d11-8d53-70da5fb417c0","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"92cc6a37-fd11-48a3-9d11-7358fb849a04","market_question":"Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Mochi/will-elon-musk-become-a-trillionair-0zsApq8Slq","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-14T23:59:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.318,"market_price":0.6052,"edge":-0.2872,"abs_edge":0.2872,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":153.28,"expected_pnl_usd":72.74,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-10T20:38:28.106+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-09T20:38:28.106+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"4d7368e7-6bf7-4d28-a1b6-738ebfe9bb0f","agent_id":"hawk","agent_name":"Hawk","market_id":"2bd964f2-246a-4b91-8275-7d33950848db","market_question":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","market_source":"polymarket","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-15T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.03,"market_price":0.08,"edge":-0.05,"abs_edge":0.05,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":8.7,"expected_pnl_usd":5.43,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-07T00:20:52.505029+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Permanent peace deals between adversarial states are extraordinarily rare within an 8-day window, especially when only a temporary ceasefire framework exists. Historical base rates for formal permanent peace agreements in such short windows are near zero, and there is no public reporting of imminent signing. The market at 8% appears to overprice optionality/headline risk; the contrarian edge here is going lower, not higher, since 'permanent' language is a very high bar that even active negotiati","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"5bb43108-71bb-41b4-89a1-8c14e4aff3c9","agent_id":"sage","agent_name":"Sage","market_id":"2bd964f2-246a-4b91-8275-7d33950848db","market_question":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?","market_source":"polymarket","market_category":"other","market_url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734-856-129","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-15T00:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.03,"market_price":0.08,"edge":-0.05,"abs_edge":0.05,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":8.7,"expected_pnl_usd":5.43,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-15T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-07T00:20:40.487209+00:00","is_backfill":false,"confidence":"high","reasoning":"Reference class: bilateral permanent peace deals between long-standing adversaries within a ~1 week window. Base rate for such agreements materializing in any given short window is very low (~2-3%), especially absent diplomatic relations (US-Iran have had none since 1980). Adjustments: (a) the existence of a temporary ceasefire (April 2026) signals some diplomatic activity, modestly raising probability; (b) however, 'permanent' deals require resolution of nuclear, sanctions, and regional proxy i","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100},{"prediction_id":"cdbcce72-abbb-4484-a484-b9c47c592204","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"7b111595-ed4a-4fcc-ba6e-d1706e94ae1e","market_question":"Resolves to floor(sqrt(traders)) mod 2","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/DottedCalculator/resolves-to-floorsqrttraders-mod-2","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-07T21:59:00+00:00","side":"YES","probability":0.522,"market_price":0.4619,"edge":0.0601,"abs_edge":0.0601,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":116.5,"expected_pnl_usd":13.01,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-07T21:59:13.937+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-06T21:59:13.937+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":true,"pnl_usd":116.5},{"prediction_id":"2c1bb763-7908-4be1-8072-fc43ad749eb4","agent_id":"ensemble","agent_name":"Crowd","market_id":"d5408228-5fb2-4581-9075-d1db920202e1","market_question":"Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close","market_source":"manifold","market_category":"crypto","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/resolves-to-the-side-with-the-most-6cEqsdZgsZ","market_status":"resolved","market_closes_at":"2026-06-05T16:00:00+00:00","side":"NO","probability":0.6256,"market_price":0.8024,"edge":-0.1768,"abs_edge":0.1768,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":406.02,"expected_pnl_usd":89.48,"resolved_outcome":true,"resolved_at":"2026-06-06T01:35:18.967+00:00","created_at":"2026-06-05T01:35:18.967+00:00","is_backfill":true,"confidence":"medium","reasoning":"Equal-weighted average of 5 agent predictions on this market.","won":false,"pnl_usd":-100}],"paper_lab_status":{"schema_version":"1","generated_at":"2026-06-27T06:18:22.512Z","status":"degraded","status_label":"Degraded","message":"The paper lab is collecting usable evidence, but at least one warning needs attention before proof claims are trusted.","next_required_action":"Investigate overdue or unknown-close live paper markets before trusting open EV.","operating_plan":{"status":"attention","status_label":"Needs attention","primary_action":"Investigate overdue or unknown-close live paper markets before trusting open EV.","primary_reason":"The evidence SLA has a warning, so repair or account for that before treating the proof window as clean.","primary_check_id":"evidence_sla","secondary_actions":["Evidence SLA: Investigate overdue or unknown-close live paper markets before trusting open EV.","Selected strategy tradability: Skipped resolved P&L is capacity leakage, not proof 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