{"schema_version":"1","generated_at":"2026-06-27T06:19:33.384Z","status":"collecting","status_label":"Collecting","message":"The selected agent-edge rule is still collecting paper evidence.","next_required_action":"Review overdue or unknown-close open paper markets before trusting this rule's runway.","paper_only":true,"real_money_execution_allowed":false,"execution_recommendation":"paper_only_review","ready_for_operator_review":false,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"selection":{"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"selection_source":"best_resolved_rule"},"source":"supabase","source_label":"Supabase","proof_rule":{"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting","captured_days":30,"required_captured_days":30,"missing_capture_days":0,"resolved_trades":9,"required_resolved_trades":30,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_open_signals":0,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"skipped_profitable_resolved_trades":1,"skipped_loss_resolved_trades":1,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"skipped_expected_open_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"win_rate":0.6666666666666666,"avg_pnl_per_trade_usd":16.8,"daily_profit_factor":0.9,"evidence_grade":"thin","evidence_grade_label":"Thin sample","window_pnl_usd":151.21,"window_roi_on_stake":0.168,"max_drawdown_usd":202.31,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"latest_snapshot_date":"2026-06-27","latest_captured_at":"2026-06-27T05:12:32.359947+00:00","proof_quality":{"evidence_grade":"thin","evidence_grade_label":"Thin sample","resolved_trades":9,"winning_trades":6,"losing_trades":3,"win_rate":0.6666666666666666,"avg_pnl_per_trade_usd":16.8,"avg_stake_usd":100,"winning_days":3,"losing_days":2,"flat_days":1,"avg_daily_pnl_usd":-3.18,"daily_profit_factor":0.9,"blockers":["21 more resolved trades needed.","21 more resolved live trades needed."]},"blockers":["21 more resolved live trades needed."],"rank":1,"source":"supabase","profitability_status":"positive_unproven","profitability_status_label":"Positive, unproven","profitability_evidence":{"status":"positive_unproven","status_label":"Positive, unproven","minimum_sample_met":false,"capture_sample_met":true,"resolved_sample_met":false,"positive_pnl_met":true,"positive_roi_met":true,"drawdown_limit_met":true,"profitability_proven":false,"resolved_trades":9,"required_resolved_trades":30,"missing_resolved_trades":21,"captured_days":30,"required_captured_days":30,"missing_capture_days":0,"net_pnl_usd":151.21,"roi_on_stake":0.168,"max_drawdown_usd":202.31,"max_allowed_drawdown_usd":500,"blockers":["21 more resolved live trades needed.","21 more resolved trades needed."]},"is_profitable":false,"is_positive_unproven":true,"is_reviewable_candidate":false},"evidence_rule":{"rank":1,"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting","profitability_status":"positive_unproven","profitability_status_label":"Positive, unproven","profitability_proven":false,"positive_unproven":true,"captured_days":30,"missing_capture_days":0,"required_captured_days":30,"resolved_trades":9,"required_resolved_trades":30,"resolved_trades_remaining":21,"window_pnl_usd":151.21,"window_roi_on_stake":0.168,"max_drawdown_usd":202.31,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"latest_snapshot_date":"2026-06-27","latest_captured_at":"2026-06-27T05:12:32.359947+00:00","blockers":["21 more resolved live trades needed."],"recent_days":[{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-27","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-27T05:12:32.359947+00:00","resolved_trades":9,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":151.21,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.168,"open_signals":2,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-26","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-26T08:37:18.375176+00:00","resolved_trades":9,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":151.21,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.168,"open_signals":2,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-25","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-25T08:33:29.162774+00:00","resolved_trades":9,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":151.21,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.168,"open_signals":2,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-24","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-24T08:36:54.769242+00:00","resolved_trades":9,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":151.21,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.168,"open_signals":2,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-23","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-23T08:40:20.472355+00:00","resolved_trades":9,"delta_resolved_trades":2,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":151.21,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-58.63,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.168,"open_signals":2,"open_exposure_usd":200,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-22","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-22T11:09:30.065144+00:00","resolved_trades":7,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":209.84,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.2998,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":182.61,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-21","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-21T09:05:48.748851+00:00","resolved_trades":7,"delta_resolved_trades":1,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":209.84,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.2998,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":182.61,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-20","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-20T08:30:09.766042+00:00","resolved_trades":6,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":309.84,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.5164,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":207.22,"skipped_trades":3,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-19","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-19T09:56:43.423642+00:00","resolved_trades":6,"delta_resolved_trades":1,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":309.84,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":56.32,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.5164,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":207.22,"skipped_trades":3,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-18","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-18T09:49:46.890863+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":235.4,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-17","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-17T10:10:54.96943+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":235.4,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-16","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-16T10:22:20.496221+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":235.4,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-15","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-15T11:25:43.739977+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-14","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-14T08:51:44.642663+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-13","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-13T08:34:28.06404+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":2,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":1,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":31.94,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-12","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-12T09:38:58.351953+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":1,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-11","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-11T09:47:52.050933+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":1,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-10","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-10T09:02:44.057068+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":1,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-09","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-09T08:44:22.667382+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":1,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-08","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-08T09:59:12.714403+00:00","resolved_trades":5,"delta_resolved_trades":1,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":253.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.507,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":1,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":1,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-100,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-07","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-07T08:32:10.70433+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":284.99,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-06","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-06T08:04:57.598339+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":284.99,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-05","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-05T08:54:15.313972+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":284.99,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-04","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-04T09:06:26.927045+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":284.99,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-03","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-03T10:14:23.613401+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":284.99,"skipped_trades":1,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-02","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-02T09:44:24.769629+00:00","resolved_trades":4,"delta_resolved_trades":2,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":353.52,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":83.23,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8838,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":219.47,"skipped_trades":1,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-06-01","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-06-01T10:35:29.1461+00:00","resolved_trades":2,"delta_resolved_trades":1,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":270.29,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":188.62,"resolved_roi_on_stake":1.3515,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":236.74,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-05-31","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-05-31T08:24:16.250208+00:00","resolved_trades":1,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":81.67,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8167,"open_signals":5,"open_exposure_usd":500,"open_expected_pnl_usd":302.93,"skipped_trades":2,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-05-30","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-05-30T07:59:52.877677+00:00","resolved_trades":1,"delta_resolved_trades":1,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":81.67,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":81.67,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0.8167,"open_signals":4,"open_exposure_usd":400,"open_expected_pnl_usd":278.89,"skipped_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"},{"snapshot_date":"2026-05-29","capture_status":"complete","capture_status_label":"Complete","has_rule_snapshot":true,"captured_at":"2026-05-29T08:54:19.071015+00:00","resolved_trades":0,"delta_resolved_trades":0,"resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"resolved_roi_on_stake":0,"open_signals":3,"open_exposure_usd":300,"open_expected_pnl_usd":223.7,"skipped_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_trades":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_trades":0,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"delta_skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":0,"missed_pnl_counts_as_proof":false,"proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting"}]},"resolved_ledger_rule":{"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"resolved_trades":9,"wins":6,"losses":3,"win_rate":0.6667,"stake_usd":900,"net_pnl_usd":151.21,"roi_on_stake":0.168,"avg_entry_price":0.4217,"avg_probability":0.4044,"avg_model_probability_correct":0.7,"avg_abs_edge":0.1978,"avg_profit_if_correct_usd":138.87,"avg_loss_if_wrong_usd":100,"avg_pnl_per_trade_usd":16.8,"payoff_ratio":1.3887,"break_even_win_rate":0.4186,"win_rate_edge":0.2481,"model_probability_edge_to_break_even":0.2814,"above_break_even":true,"latest_resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00","recent_resolved_trades":[{"prediction_id":"fe4a256c-50b7-48e0-a8c6-100de9395f67","market_id":"3f3aeb0a-5d45-4713-90d1-643846339301","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-exactly-higher-7-da-S2U6UULyhn","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"YES","probability":0.5,"market_price":0.3553,"edge":0.1447,"abs_edge":0.1447,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":-100,"roi_on_stake":-1,"won":false,"created_at":"2026-06-19T00:19:29.899031+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-23T00:01:43.159+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"6228b8c3-1b3f-4457-b5f4-deaeb66032db","market_id":"cb8d4fe0-d285-4a1d-bcc9-38cb4b49982d","market_question":"Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-anthropic-have-kyc-for-custome","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.18,"market_price":0.2926,"edge":-0.1126,"abs_edge":0.1126,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":41.37,"roi_on_stake":0.4137,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-06-15T12:20:53.923811+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-22T06:28:44.112+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"3b3ce70b-22cf-4c48-bfad-9391e58afd5d","market_id":"fa910adb-ada0-4c8e-96e2-abb5b3c757f9","market_question":"If Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, will he win?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-andy-burnham-is-the-candidate-fo","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"YES","probability":0.82,"market_price":0.6397,"edge":0.1803,"abs_edge":0.1803,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":56.32,"roi_on_stake":0.5632,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-05-31T00:19:53.401803+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-19T02:32:20.009+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"9701c09f-495e-42cc-918f-22e390794bce","market_id":"de925808-e070-46e1-ad81-fb58d247c1f4","market_question":"Will a NBA player get suspended in the remainder of the NBA playoffs?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-a-nba-player-get-suspended-in","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"YES","probability":0.35,"market_price":0.2117,"edge":0.1383,"abs_edge":0.1383,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":-100,"roi_on_stake":-1,"won":false,"created_at":"2026-05-25T12:25:44.977834+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-14T19:45:31.471+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"e148e72e-5af7-4477-9285-5b21aa8d43dc","market_id":"38755bb3-e6a7-41da-a247-0b96e41673cd","market_question":"Will Bitcoin be higher than right now, exactly 7 days from now?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/will-bitcoin-be-higher-or-lower-tha","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"YES","probability":0.48,"market_price":0.29,"edge":0.19,"abs_edge":0.19,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":-100,"roi_on_stake":-1,"won":false,"created_at":"2026-06-02T12:20:56.515921+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-07T21:10:05.933+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"bad73324-bc48-47ad-8e59-4a150990d596","market_id":"afbfab95-7f6d-4ffc-baf2-c5e51ac86e8e","market_question":"Will a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/vlads/will-a-russian-irbmicbm-strike-the","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.08,"market_price":0.2423,"edge":-0.1623,"abs_edge":0.1623,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":31.97,"roi_on_stake":0.3197,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-05-30T12:21:11.001492+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-06-02T00:35:55.397+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"de24fce2-315a-4289-a8bb-31e6abd61e17","market_id":"f91a18fb-840b-4776-a179-c793d2895d21","market_question":"Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $98.50 on May 28, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/ShaneBo/will-the-wti-crude-oil-spot-price-b-Cqgnq2tICg","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.06,"market_price":0.4495,"edge":-0.3895,"abs_edge":0.3895,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":81.67,"roi_on_stake":0.8167,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-05-26T00:19:36.083882+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-05-29T13:41:32.022+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"088c992d-b203-4f2a-a739-473b7959b490","market_id":"90b8ac4d-5830-488b-9e2f-a0fa9368ea89","market_question":"Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in May 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/free-mana-will-vladimir-putins-appr","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.35,"market_price":0.6535,"edge":-0.3035,"abs_edge":0.3035,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":188.62,"roi_on_stake":1.8862,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-05-25T12:22:45.827441+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-05-29T11:01:09.462+00:00"},{"prediction_id":"ad4fdc04-a1f3-4d0f-bdfc-f17c09f78744","market_id":"dcedd1e9-1165-44cc-8d7f-9d419b4ae730","market_question":"US Gas Price $4.400 or below in May 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-gas-price-4400-or-below-in-may-2","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"YES","probability":0.82,"market_price":0.6611,"edge":0.1589,"abs_edge":0.1589,"stake_usd":100,"pnl_usd":51.26,"roi_on_stake":0.5126,"won":true,"created_at":"2026-05-30T12:19:49.3112+00:00","resolved_at":"2026-05-29T09:52:01.179+00:00"}]},"runway_rule":{"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"stake_mode":"kelly_capped","proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting","status":"blocked","status_label":"Needs review","next_required_action":"Review overdue or unknown-close open paper markets before trusting this rule's runway.","resolved_trades":9,"required_resolved_trades":30,"resolved_trades_remaining":21,"open_signals":2,"tradable_open_signals":1,"review_required_signals":1,"closing_next_7d_signals":1,"pending_resolution_capacity":1,"sample_gap_after_open":20,"can_reach_required_sample_with_open":false,"next_close_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","oldest_opened_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:56.626569+00:00","top_open_signals":[{"prediction_id":"2943bfa1-5cfc-4aba-b4ca-66b16805bfa3","market_id":"bd61a7d5-dd09-4581-ac68-e38ea51e4f40","market_question":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.72,"market_price":0.8275,"edge":-0.1075,"abs_edge":0.1075,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":479.76,"expected_pnl_usd":62.33,"market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:56.626569+00:00","close_status":"closing_next_7d","tradability_status":"tradable","days_until_close":3.74,"age_days":28.75},{"prediction_id":"ecace52f-3dc8-47fc-9467-ced04e533e30","market_id":"cfba8d90-b574-41b4-9c23-c49bb56f0441","market_question":"Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th-Q2PqZLlyUQ","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.28,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.28,"abs_edge":0.28,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.26,"expected_pnl_usd":63.63,"market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T09:59:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-05-30T00:19:42.79294+00:00","close_status":"overdue","tradability_status":"needs_review","days_until_close":-26.85,"age_days":28.25}]},"watchlist_rule":{"strategy_id":"magpie-live-edge-10","strategy_label":"Magpie live, edge >= 10pp","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","min_edge":0.1,"stake_mode":"kelly_capped","proof_status":"collecting","proof_status_label":"Collecting","open_signals":2,"tradable_signals":1,"review_required_signals":1,"open_exposure_usd":200,"tradable_open_exposure_usd":100,"open_expected_pnl_usd":125.96,"tradable_open_expected_pnl_usd":62.33,"avg_abs_edge":0.1938,"next_close_at":"2026-05-31T09:59:00+00:00","oldest_opened_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:56.626569+00:00","top_open_signals":[{"prediction_id":"2943bfa1-5cfc-4aba-b4ca-66b16805bfa3","market_id":"bd61a7d5-dd09-4581-ac68-e38ea51e4f40","market_question":"Will Anthropic make Claude Mythos broadly available before July 1, 2026?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-make-claude-mythos-b","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.72,"market_price":0.8275,"edge":-0.1075,"abs_edge":0.1075,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":479.76,"expected_pnl_usd":62.33,"market_closes_at":"2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-05-29T12:19:56.626569+00:00","close_status":"closing_next_7d","tradability_status":"tradable","days_until_close":3.74,"age_days":28.75},{"prediction_id":"ecace52f-3dc8-47fc-9467-ced04e533e30","market_id":"cfba8d90-b574-41b4-9c23-c49bb56f0441","market_question":"Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?","market_source":"manifold","market_url":"https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-ukraine-gain-more-territory-th-Q2PqZLlyUQ","agent_id":"magpie","agent_name":"Magpie","side":"NO","probability":0.28,"market_price":0.56,"edge":-0.28,"abs_edge":0.28,"stake_usd":100,"max_loss_usd":100,"profit_if_correct_usd":127.26,"expected_pnl_usd":63.63,"market_closes_at":"2026-05-31T09:59:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-05-30T00:19:42.79294+00:00","close_status":"overdue","tradability_status":"needs_review","days_until_close":-26.85,"age_days":28.25}]},"summary":{"captured_days":30,"required_captured_days":30,"missing_capture_days":0,"resolved_trades":9,"required_resolved_trades":30,"resolved_trades_remaining":21,"window_pnl_usd":151.21,"window_roi_on_stake":0.168,"max_drawdown_usd":202.31,"open_signals":2,"tradable_open_signals":1,"pending_resolution_capacity":1,"sample_gap_after_open":20,"skipped_resolved_net_pnl_usd":-68.06,"recent_resolved_trade_count":9,"recent_evidence_day_count":30},"open_checks":["resolved_sample","positive_pnl","positive_roi"],"failed_checks":[],"checks":[{"id":"capture_window","label":"Capture window","status":"pass","current":"30/30 days","target":"30 complete live days","detail":"30 evidence days are attached to this dossier."},{"id":"resolved_sample","label":"Resolved sample","status":"collecting","current":"9/30 tickets","target":"30 resolved paper tickets","detail":"Review overdue or unknown-close open paper markets before trusting this rule's runway."},{"id":"positive_pnl","label":"Positive P&L","status":"collecting","current":"$151.21","target":">= $1.00","detail":"Only accepted resolved paper tickets count; missed capacity P&L is excluded."},{"id":"positive_roi","label":"Positive ROI","status":"collecting","current":"16.8%","target":"> 0.0%","detail":"ROI is judged only on resolved accepted stake."},{"id":"drawdown","label":"Drawdown","status":"pass","current":"$202.31","target":"<= $500.00","detail":"Drawdown must stay inside the durable proof limit."}],"controls":{"sample":"live_only","agent_id":null,"category":null,"side":null,"bankroll_usd":5000,"min_edge":0.1,"stake_mode":"kelly_capped","flat_stake_usd":25,"max_stake_usd":100,"max_open_exposure_usd":500},"description":"Read-only selected-rule proof dossier for Eivra agent-edge paper strategies. It composes durable proof, daily evidence, resolved tickets, runway, and open-signal watchlist without enabling execution."}